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The leader of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, is undertaking a high-stakes trip to the US capital to confer with US President Donald Trump. This marks the initial in-person encounter for the two figures following an extended period of escalating strains and heated rhetoric.

Agenda for Discussion

Venezuela, narcotics trade, oil, security, and American military actions on alleged drug vessels are expected to be top on the agenda when they meet at the White House on the scheduled day.

A History of Strained Relations

Although the two men were polite in a telephone conversation after a January American action, Petro has subsequently said he feels there is a "real threat" of military action targeting Colombia. Trump, for his part, has earlier remarked that a such action in Colombia "sounds good".

The upcoming meeting comes after an extended period of the two leaders trading barbs. Petro has often condemned repeated US strikes on suspected narco-vessels in the Caribbean and Pacific, as well as the US administration's border policies.

"His stance shifted," the US President was quoted as saying prior to the Washington meeting.

Areas of Disagreement

On the US side, Trump has accused Petro's administration of not doing enough to stop the flow of narcotics toward the United States, and has vowed to extend military actions to terrestrial objectives across the area.

However, the acrimony seemed to subside after a "cordial" phone call between the two leaders, which a Colombian official later described as an complete reversal "by both parties".

Mediating Role

Per diplomatic sources, a key figure – US Senator Rand Paul – was pivotal in setting up the conversation. "I have faith in negotiation and I thought our ties were going in the wrong way," the senator was quoted as saying. "My hope is for our relations to improve."

Regional Stability and the ELN

Ahead of Tuesday's meeting, officials from Bogotá indicated that much of the conversation would center on shared US and Colombian worries over security in Venezuela, with which Colombia has an extensive border.

Much of that frontier is under the sway of the ELN. This armed faction, founded in the 1960s, dominates drug trafficking, extortion, smuggling, and unlawful extraction in frontier regions and reportedly collaborates with compromised officials within the Caracas administration.

From the US perspective, tackling the threat of the ELN will be vital to ensuring safety for US companies involved in Venezuela's energy sector. Analysts point out that the ELN has the capacity to spoil investment plans by attacking foreign investors and employees, as it has previously attempted in Colombia.

Drug War Collaboration

An equally pressing issue for the two leaders will be the struggle against drug trafficking from Colombia, the global biggest source of the narcotic. In November, Petro instituted a temporary pause on information exchange with US authorities after Trump's threats.

The US has, in turn, officially listed Colombia as a country that has "demonstrably failed" in controlling the narcotics trade. It has also imposed sanctions on Colombian officials, including the president and members of his family.

"There is no fight without Colombia," stated a regional security expert. "The threat to sever Colombian cooperation could also undermine all investigations."

Potential Outcomes

But even with several issues for cooperation, the possibility for a confrontation remains. "Trump loves you one day, dislikes you the next day," observed a ex-official. "My suspicion is that Petro will walk in with some offers to avoid Trump's ire... But one never knows."

But for Petro, even a contentious encounter could be beneficial. His presidential term ends in the coming months, and the results of the talks could impact the political future of his preferred successor.

"In some ways, he's kind of in a win-win situation," noted a Latin American studies professor. "A positive outcome undermines criticism... If talks sour, he's protecting Colombian interests. He could turn that in his favour."