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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It frequently serves as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement is handed the award. In practice, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or just the biggest upset.

However the latest field is profoundly different. The group of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference champions declining and longtime underperformers rising in unison. In an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's competing with several other elite candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to create magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet this is not a normal season!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and experience, he bet on first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still