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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

New Title Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."